Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Optimism: we are not going to hell in a hand basket

Technology is ruining our lives. Kids these days and their dang video games. If only life were simpler…


You probably haven’t spoken these exact phrases (because you don’t want to sound like a fretful old hermit knitting sweaters for cats) but odds are that you’ve said something like this. That’s normal, most of us have. Longing for the past is as common as fearing the future.


The sad fact is that the past is a terrible place made slightly less terrible by wealth or status. I don't need to go into the living conditions of the pre-eighteenth century world do I? I'm not just talking about the lack of indoor plumbing. I'm talking about starvation, disease, slavery and all the other normal conditions. Fix that in your mind and jump forward to the much admired 1950's.



"Those were simpler times." Maybe, but simpler doesn't always mean better. Cancer treatments have certainly increased in their complexity, but I'm not complaining.


"People knew right from wrong back then." No. One generation is not more moral than another. We're the same people put into different situations. Prior generations valued religion, the current generation values equality. Obviously millennials aren't born different or "defective," they just changed with the times the same way baby boomers changed with their times. If a generation of hippies managed to grow up, hold jobs, have children, and live long enough to disapprove of their own children then millenials will doubtless do the same.


Between the lack of modern conveniences, rampant racism, and post-war push to get women out of the workplace and into the kitchen, I'll pass on the 1950's.  They had great diners though, and drive in movies, and some sharp outfits. It wasn't all bad. Very little ever is.


Pessimists out there believe that we're all going to hell in a hand basket and the world is getting gradually worse every year. They believe that the world is more dangerous than ever. Reading The Science of Fear: How the Culture of Fear Manipulates Your Brain cemented an idea that I'd long entertained. It convinced me that everything is actually ok.


Humans have always used the availability heuristic as a tool to determine how dangerous their environment is. If we hear one story about drinking poisoned well water we know that it's not very likely to happen to us. If we heard five stories we think twice before drinking that water. That tool worked well when we got our news through small communities, but now that we can hear thousands of worldwide stories about toxic water we worry. We worry about pesticides in our foods, sexual predators on our playgrounds, and terrorists in our cities.


We worry about our youth and the consequences of technology. We assume that they're more immoral or disrespectful than previous generations. We're afraid that social media will turn them all into illiterate narcissists. We wring our hands and repeat the laments that our ancestors uttered about the Gutenberg press, waltzing, and chess.


We shouldn't. Our world is not only safer than it's ever been, but the "kids these days" are going to be fine.


To illustrate my point I present you with the following links and graphs:


Let's start with all those diseases we don't have to deal with anymore. If you yearn for the good ol’ days you have to take the good with the bad; that includes polio, malaria and all those other illnesses that Americans don’t have to deal with anymore.




Then there's the worldwide decrease in poverty from 43.1%  in 1990 to 20.6% 2010. (There's some debate as to whether the increase is as dramatic as the World Bank claims is it, but nevertheless we have reason to believe that the quality of life is improving.) Many believe that third world countries are a lost cause. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation disagrees. Conditions overall are improving leading to greater worldwide income equality




As for safety concerns, it’s true that violent crime used to be on the rise, but in the past few decades violent crime has gone down, not up.




Speaking of violence, death due to war is way down worldwide.



You are more likely now than ever to die peacefully in your sleep surrounded by your grandchildren or even great grandchildren. If that's not a resounding recommendation of the modern day you can still join the Amish.


As amazing as the present day is, the future promises to be even better.  Look at all the cool stuff that could come our way.


Clean nuclear energy. We already have the technology, all we lack is the widespread implementation.


Lab grown organs, no more waiting on the list of people who need transplants. Also the organs are made from your cells so that your body won't reject it.


Faster than light space travel. I'm not saying that it'll happen soon, I'm just saying that we can't rule it out...it's too amazing to give up on.


Nasa’s imaginative design for a faster than light spaceship


Because we're humans we will misuse this technology and wring our hands and worry about how it's ruining our lives. Then we'll go home, say hello to our family, eat dinner, and go to bed the same way we always have.

No comments:

Post a Comment